We investigate the economic eﬀects of three separate types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy using a factor augmented vector autoregression framework and 185 monthly macroeconomic indicators from 1978 to 2017. We ﬁnd that while increases in the price of crude oil triggered by oil supply shocks and oil demand shocks lead to a signiﬁcant and permanent increase in the U.S. price level, the main drivers of ﬂuctuations in the price of crude oil and the U.S. price level are oil-speciﬁc precautionary demand shocks. Further, while increases in the price of oil triggered by oil supply shocks are recessionary and lower U.S. economic activity, those triggered by oil demand shocks driven by global economic activity are associated with increased U.S. economic activity. We also ﬁnd evidence that monetary policy-makers tighten monetary policy in response to oil demand shocks to mitigate inﬂationary eﬀects, however we ﬁnd no such evidence for oil supply shocks. Finally, we ﬁnd the U.S. dollar real exchange rate depreciates in response to increases in the price of oil caused by both oil demand and supply shocks, however the eﬀects from oil supply shocks are more permanent.
The Journal of Economics, Race and Policy is soliciting manuscripts for a special issue on the COVID-19 pandemic. As the focus of the journal is the intersection of local and global issues concerning economic conditions around race, ethnicity, gender, linguistic, and tribal differences along with policy prescriptions that address economic disparities, we seek papers that consider COVID-19 within this context. The manuscripts can be theoretical, empirical, or descriptive.
To be considered for publication in the special issue, please submit your proposed paper abstract of no more than 250 words to firstname.lastname@example.org. Invited authors will need to submit completed manuscripts, not exceeding 7,000 words, via JERP’s online submission portal no later than August 1, 2020 for the highest consideration. All submissions will be peer-reviewed.
If you have questions, please contact the Guest Editor, Gregory N. Price at email@example.com.
The Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy announces a Call for Papers that examine trends in socioeconomic outcomes for indigenous groups compared to non-indigenous groups. The call is also interested in studies that explore determinants of socioeconomic outcomes for indigenous groups. Papers can also examine the gaps in socioeconomic outcomes between indigenous and non-indigenous groups over time. Possible socioeconomic outcomes could include, but are not limited to: education, employment, health and well-being, economic and social participation, community and family violence, and housing.
More information is available here.
Art Carden from Samford University visited the department last week to give a pair of talks including a seminar on “James M. Buchanan: Smithian Economist as Business Ethicist”. Art gave a great seminar and made for a super visit!! It was great catching up with you Art!
My new paper, “Macroeconomic Shocks and Racial Labour Market Differences”, with Kuhelika De (GVSU), Dan Giedeman (GVSU), and Gary Hoover(Oklahoma) is now available as a Center for Economic Studies (CESifo) working paper.